Jul 24 2008

One Million Dollars Does Not Get You Too Far

I was a little bit bored today and start to day dreaming in the office. I know it has been discussed many times in personal finance world about how much you need to retire. But just for fun and to kill some time, I brought up a spreadsheet and did some calculation to see how far can a million dollars get me going. Here is the details:

Assumption:

  1. I have my place paid off before retirement
  2. The period in my retirements are 40 years
  3. I have one million dollars in today’s dollar
  4. The inflation rate is 4% per year
  5. The return on my money is 4% per year as well
  6. I would be withdrawing $30,000 per year before tax and the amount will increased every year in the pace of inflation rate (that will be equivalent to about $24000 after tax I think)

The numbers:

Year Money On Hand Withdraw Per Year
1 100 3
2 100.88 3.12
3 102.648 3.2448
4 104.37336 3.374592
5 106.0487064 3.50957568
6 107.6660873 3.649958707
7 109.216935 3.795957055
8 110.6920268 3.947795338
9 112.0814431 4.105707151
10 113.3745227 4.269935437
11 114.5598166 4.440732855
12 115.625038 4.618362169
13 116.5570096 4.803096656
14 117.3416086 4.995220522
15 117.9637074 5.195029343
16 118.407112 5.402830517
17 118.6544956 5.618943737
18 118.6873294 5.843701487
19 118.4858093 6.077449546
20 118.0287778 6.320547528
21 117.2936418 6.573369429
22 116.2562859 6.836304206
23 114.8909808 7.109756375
24 113.1702857 7.394146629
25 111.064946 7.689912495
26 108.5437852 7.997508994
27 105.57359 8.317409354
28 102.1189897 8.650105728
29 98.14232814 8.996109958
30 93.60352909 9.355954356
31 88.45995347 9.73019253
32 82.66624899 10.11940023
33 76.1741912 10.52417624
34 68.9325157 10.94514329
35 60.88674104 11.38294902
36 51.97898161 11.83826698
37 42.14775036 12.31179766
38 31.32775034 12.80426957
39 19.44965481 13.31644035
40 6.439875178 13.84909797
41 -7.779683927 14.40306188

You might think one million dollars are a lot of money especially if you have had your place paid off. But as you can see from the numbers above, with my assumptions, if I retire at age of 40 and IF I have one million dollars(in today’s purchasing power) by that time I retire, I will be running out of money at year 40, just about the right time for 40 years in retirements. In other words, one million dollars are just about the right amount to make your ends meet.

You might argue that the rate of return and the inflation rate I have had in my assumption are very conservative. Yes, they are. But the withdraw amount I have set up is also very realistic too. It is not an amount you can use to afford a luxury life style, but a very moderate one. So I guess one million dollars does not get you too far these days, at least not if you decide to retire early.

2 Comments on this post

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  1. Canadian Dream said:

    Actually what is interesting about your assumptions was the fact your money wasn’t gaining any ground at all. Your real return was 0%.

    So if you inflation is just a bit lower and your return is just a bit higher you would likely notice at a 3% withdrawal rate that your money would last likely a good 50 years or longer.

    Retirement planning is interesting as your assumptions greatly effect your model results.

    Tim

    August 24th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
  2. littlemoneylab said:

    Hi, Tim
    Yes, I have kept the assumption quite conservative as I think there are too many factors that you cannot control in your retirement.

    August 24th, 2008 at 5:44 pm

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